FQ 9 #1-8

1. Conditional reasoning is the logical determination of whether the evidence supports, refutes, or is irrelevant to the given relationship. It usually involves an “if…then” problem. The antecedent is the proposition or statement that comes first; the antecedent is contained in the “if” part of the sentence. The consequent refers to the proposition that follows; it is the consequence and is contained in the “then” part of the sentence. When working on a conditional reasoning task, we can either affirm the sentence (say that it is true) or we can deny part of the sentence (saying that it is false). The easiest kind of conditional reasoning task is affirming the antecedent, and the most difficult is denying the consequent. This may be because conditional reasoning relies upon working memory, and we’d expect the burden on working memory to be especially heavy when some of the propositions contain negative terms or abstract ideas. Also, invalid conclusions can be hard because people are tempted to make an illicit conversion (if p then q = if q then p) or in real life, logically invalid conclusions are often true.

2. In the four-card problem, there is a conditional statement that says “If there is a vowel on one side, there is an even number on the other.” There are then four cards – one with a vowel, one with a consonant, one with an even number, and one with an odd number. The question is: what cards would need to be turned over in order to determine if the rule is valid or invalid? We should flip over the vowel – if there’s an even number on the other side, then the rule is upheld. If we flip over the consonant, there’s no valid conclusion no matter what’s on the other side. If we flip over the even number, this is assuming that q is true and leads to no valid conclusion. We should flip over the odd number and there’s a vowel on the other side, then the rule is broken. If there’s a consonant, then there’s no valid conclusion. The greatest percentages of subjects requesting flips were for the vowel and the even number ( 53% and 43% respectively) because of a confirmation bias: a bias to look for positive evidence (or evidence that supports the rule).